Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-28 19:48

Win Probability: 83.1% | Expected Margin: +31.9 pts

Strong Week 13 matchup against a division rival. Our team has significant projected advantages across multiple positions, particularly at WR where Jaxon Smith-Njigba (historic pace) and Rashee Rice (elite matchup vs Dallas) lead the way. The Monte Carlo simulation shows 83% win probability with an expected margin of nearly 32 points.

Key Storylines:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues record-breaking pace (1,313 yds, on track for 2,000+)
- Rashee Rice faces NFL's worst pass defense (Dallas allows 18 WR TDs)
- Bucky Irving returns from 7-game injury absence vs vulnerable ARI rush D
- Tetairoa McMillan gets boosted opportunity with MHJ sidelined (appendicitis surgery Nov 10)

Recommended Starting Lineup

Position Player Team Opponent ESPN Proj LLM Proj XGB Boom Conf Notes
QB Jacoby Brissett ARI @ TB 17.3 23.8 19.5% HIGH 18+ pts in all 5 starts, TB allows 5th most QB FPTS
RB Bucky Irving TB vs ARI 11.8 15.3 9.5% MEDIUM Returns from injury, ARI allows 142 rush yds/game
RB Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX 9.9 8.0 13.2% LOW 50% snap share, light rain expected
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs MIN 21.9 34.3 50.0% HIGH WR1 overall, 11 straight 75+ yd games, MIN weak secondary
WR Rashee Rice KC @ DAL 18.1 25.9 13.2% HIGH 20%+ target share, DAL worst vs WR (18 TDs allowed)
TE Juwan Johnson NO @ MIA 8.7 14.0 21.0% MEDIUM 5 straight games 10+ FPTS, MIA 4th worst vs TE
FLEX Tetairoa McMillan ARI @ TB 13.2 21.5 21.1% MEDIUM MHJ out, 22% target share, opportunity boost
K Jason Myers SEA vs MIN 8.5 11.5 12.1% MEDIUM SEA -11.5 favorites, high FG opportunities
D/ST Rams D/ST LAR @ CAR 7.5 8.9 18.1% HIGH 10-pt favorites, CAR implied total 17.25

Total ESPN Projection: 128.2 pts
Total LLM Projection: 163.1 pts

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

The XGBoost model (v13) provides probability-based boom/bust predictions using historical data and weekly context:

Player Position XGB Boom XGB Bust Confidence Decision
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 50.0% 14.0% HIGH High boom - Start with confidence
Jordan Love QB 28.4% 20.9% MEDIUM Moderate upside, bench for Brissett
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 25.7% 18.2% MEDIUM Injured - avoid
Keenan Allen WR 25.3% 24.3% MEDIUM Bench - solid floor, limited upside
Evan Engram TE 25.0% 25.6% MEDIUM Bench behind Juwan
Tetairoa McMillan WR 21.1% 18.1% HIGH Start - opportunity boost
Juwan Johnson TE 21.0% 25.0% HIGH Start - hot streak + matchup
Jameson Williams WR 20.6% 20.3% MEDIUM Boom/bust - bench
Jacoby Brissett QB 19.5% 43.3% MEDIUM Start - 5-game hot streak
Rams D/ST D/ST 18.1% 32.9% MEDIUM Start - elite matchup
Rashee Rice WR 13.2% 27.0% HIGH Start - elite opportunity
Tyjae Spears RB 13.2% 33.1% HIGH Start - best available
Bucky Irving RB 9.5% 54.5% HIGH High bust risk - injury return
Omarion Hampton RB 8.3% 54.4% MEDIUM IR - unavailable

High Boom Targets: JSN (50.0%)
High Bust Risks: Bucky Irving (54.5%), Omarion Hampton (54.4%)

QB Decision: Jacoby Brissett vs Jordan Love

Jacoby Brissett (ARI @ TB, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection (IBM watsonx): 17.3 pts
  • LLM Projection (Claude Opus 4.5): 23.8 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 19.5% boom, 43.3% bust
  • Recommendation: START

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games of 18+ fantasy points since becoming starter
- 1,887 passing yards in 6 games (most by any QB in 6-game span)
- Tampa Bay allows 5th most fantasy points to QBs
- Expert consensus: QB8 for week
- Pass-heavy Cardinals offense with no running game

Boom/Bust Signals:
- HOT streak (5 games): +boom adjustment
- Favorable matchup: TB defense allows 19.4 FPG to QBs

RB Analysis

Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 11.8 pts
  • LLM Projection: 15.3 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 9.5% boom, 54.5% bust
  • Recommendation: START with caution - High bust risk

LLM Reasoning:
- Returning from 7-game injury absence (subluxated shoulder + foot sprain)
- Arizona allows 142 rushing yards per game (last 3 weeks)
- Arizona ranked 21st DVOA vs rush
- May be eased back into action (expect 13-15 touches)
- Pre-injury: Scored 13.9+ PPR in all 4 starts

Bust Risk:
- Injury return limits volume
- Committee with Rachaad White possible

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 9.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 8.0 pts (LOW confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 33.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Best available option

LLM Reasoning:
- 50% snap share split with Tony Pollard
- Jacksonville favored by 6.5 points
- Light rain expected (may help run game)
- Floor play only, limited upside

WR Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN, Sun 4:05 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 21.9 pts
  • LLM Projection: 34.3 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 50.0% boom, 14.0% bust
  • Recommendation: MUST-START - Best receiver in fantasy

LLM Reasoning:
- WR1 overall for Week 13 (expert consensus)
- 1,313 receiving yards (on pace for 2,030 - record pace)
- 11 consecutive games with 75+ receiving yards
- 35% target share (elite volume)
- Minnesota starting 3rd string QB Max Brosmer
- Vegas: SEA -11.5, implied team total 26.5 (source)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 105.5
- Anytime TD: -115

Rashee Rice (KC @ DAL, Thu 4:30 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 18.1 pts
  • LLM Projection: 25.9 pts (HIGH confidence)
  • XGBoost: 13.2% boom, 27.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Elite matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- Dallas allows MOST fantasy points to WRs (30th ranked defense)
- 18 WR touchdowns allowed by Dallas (NFL worst)
- 20%+ target share in every game this season
- Season-high 141 yards in Week 12
- Leads KC in red zone targets (13)
- Zone coverage killer (+42% boost vs zone)

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 77.5
- Anytime TD: -120

Tetairoa McMillan (ARI @ TB, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 13.2 pts
  • LLM Projection: 21.5 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.1% boom, 18.1% bust
  • Recommendation: START at FLEX - Opportunity boost

LLM Reasoning:
- MHJ sidelined (appendicitis surgery Nov 10)
- 22% target share with increasing trend
- 7 targets in Week 12
- Rookie building chemistry with Brissett
- Tampa Bay defense allows 18th most to WRs

Opportunity Signals:
- WR1 OUT: Major opportunity boost
- Target share increasing
- Snap count increasing (88%)

TE Analysis

Juwan Johnson (NO @ MIA, Sun 1:00 PM)

  • ESPN Projection: 8.7 pts
  • LLM Projection: 14.0 pts (MEDIUM confidence)
  • XGBoost: 21.0% boom, 25.0% bust
  • Recommendation: START - Hot streak + favorable matchup

LLM Reasoning:
- 5 consecutive games with 10+ fantasy points
- Miami allows 4th-6th most fantasy points to TEs
- Only 24% rostered (streaming gem)
- 2nd pass-catching option for Saints
- Low team total (17.75 implied) limits ceiling

Props:
- Receiving yards O/U: 44.5

Position Player Team Status ESPN LLM XGB Boom/Bust Notes
QB Jordan Love GB BENCH 15.7 17.7 28.4%/20.9% Thanksgiving dome game, shootout potential
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI QUESTIONABLE 13.7 10.6 25.7%/18.2% Appendicitis surgery Nov 10, check status
WR Jameson Williams DET BENCH 11.8 11.5 20.6%/20.3% Boom/bust, Thanksgiving game
WR Keenan Allen LAC BENCH 12.0 14.3 25.3%/24.3% Consistent, LAC heavy run game
RB Omarion Hampton LAC IR 12.3 15.4 8.3%/54.4% Injured - unavailable
RB Emanuel Wilson GB BENCH 5.6 8.5 10.7%/34.2% Backup role
TE Evan Engram DEN BENCH 8.1 6.5 25.0%/25.6% Adjusting to new system

Monte Carlo report not available. Run generate_weekly_mc_report.py first.

Vegas Lines Summary

Game Spread Total Implied Team Totals
KC @ DAL (Thu) KC -3.5 52.5 KC 28.0, DAL 24.5
GB @ DET (Thu) DET -2.5 48.5 DET 25.5, GB 23.0
ARI @ TB TB -3.0 43.5 TB 23.25, ARI 20.25
SEA vs MIN SEA -11.5 41.5 SEA 26.5, MIN 15.0
NO @ MIA MIA -6.0 41.5 MIA 23.75, NO 17.75
JAX @ TEN JAX -6.5 42.0 JAX 24.25, TEN 17.75
LAR @ CAR LAR -10.0 44.5 LAR 27.25, CAR 17.25
LAC vs LV LAC -8.5 40.5 LAC 24.5, LV 16.0

Opponent Analysis

Opponent Projected Total: 132.4 pts
Key Injuries: Baker Mayfield (QUESTIONABLE - shoulder)

If Baker Mayfield sits, Shedeur Sanders would start (6.0 EV vs 17+ for Mayfield).

Bench Substitution Scenario:
- Baker Mayfield OUT (15% probability): Sanders subs in (-11 pt swing)

Waiver Wire Notes

Free Agents to Monitor:
- Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - Proj 11.2, strong TE option
- Terry McLaurin (WR, WSH) - Proj 11.0, Daniels returning
- Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) - Proj 9.7, may return from injury

Historical Accuracy Context

Your Team's ESPN Projection Accuracy (Weeks 1-12):
- Overall MAE: 4.45 pts
- QB Bias: -2.00 pts (ESPN under-projects QBs)
- RB R-squared: 0.541 (most reliable)
- WR R-squared: 0.498 (reliable)

ESPN Projection Accuracy

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XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

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LLM vs ESPN Comparison

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